TheDyspatch Euro 2024: Group Stage Recap + Knockout Preview and Predictions

With the group stage over, Euro 2024 roars into the knockouts. Thus far, the tournament has been mostly quite enjoyable, although the last few days in particular provided some less intriguing matches. Despite this, there were some significant surprises in the final matches of group stage play, such as Georgia taking down Portugal (admittedly, Cristiano Ronaldo was the only player not rotated in the squad)  and Austria beating the Netherlands to top the group above France. Romania, Georgia, Slovenia, Türkiye, and Slovakia are all nations ranked outside of the top 40 that made it into the knockout stages, where they’ll be joined by 7 of the top 10. Looking at the bracket, it’s clear that the top half is the stronger one, with Germany, Spain, Portugal, France, and Belgium all among the pre-tournament favorites landing in the upper half of the bracket. We’ll take a look at how we got here, then break down the matchups for the round of 16 and project what the quarterfinals will look like.

In Group A, hosts Germany topped the group, as expected, but Switzerland took them down to the wire on the final match day, before Niclas Füllkrug fired home an equalizer in the 92nd minute. The real disappointment of the group was an atrocious Scotland side that barely managed to generate scoring chances in their 3 matches, let alone goals. Switzerland were impressive, and Hungary were relatively unlucky not to advance after a thrilling last-minute winner from Kevin Csoboth against Scotland, due to Portugal’s shocking loss to Georgia. The Swiss got a standard major tournament banger from Xherdan Shaqiri, even though he’s playing for the Chicago Fire in the MLS, and Romeo Freuler and Granit Xhaka have been standouts in the midfield. They’ll have a decent chance against an Italy team that looked far from their best. Germany, meanwhile, looked every bit the pre-tournament favorites in their opening match, dismantling Scotland by a 5-1 scoreline, and then beat a strong Hungary team 2-0 in the second match. Jamal Musiala has been one of the stars of the tournament, but if Germany want to win their first Euro since 1996, it looks they’ll have to go through an absolute gauntlet. 

Group B saw Spain and Italy atop the group, which wasn’t much of an upset, but it was a little surprising to see Croatia miss out on the knockout stages with a lot of major tournament experience. The heart-wrenching photo of Luka Modrić with the Man of the Match trophy following Croatia’s exit will be one of the enduring images of the tournament. Spain, meanwhile, looked like one of the strongest teams in the tournament, dominating all 3 matches, even though they at times struggled to find goals. Italy did not, but a last-minute goal from Lazio winger Mattia Zaccagni brought them level with Croatia and was enough to earn them a point, which was all they needed after beating Albania in the first match day, albeit unconvincingly. Albania acquitted themselves quite well, and can consider themselves relatively unlucky to have come away with just a single point after some strong performances. Italy showed glimpses of the play that took them to the 2020 Euro title, and Riccardo Calafiori has undoubtedly been a bright spot and earned himself a move to a major European side, but Italy also struggled for long stretches and barely managed a point against a washed-up Croatia team. If they want to beat a much stronger Swiss side, they need to find it — and fast.

Moving along to Group C, Gareth Southgate’s England side managed to top the group despite playing some truly uninspiring football, with just 2 goals in 3 matches despite one of the strongest squads in the tournament and a remarkable collection of attacking talent. Their 0-0 draw against Slovenia on the final match day was … well, matched, by a woefully uninspiring 0-0 draw between Denmark and Serbia. Despite a nice collection of talent and a strong overall team, Serbia scored just one goal and only managed two draws, finishing bottom of the group. Slovenia were not particularly impressive, and drew all three matches they played, but at the Euros, that can be enough — and it was this time, as they were the 4th-ranked 3rd place team. Denmark ended up in second, and Christian Eriksen has become one of the stories of the tournament. Just 3 years removed from his cardiac event on-field at Euro 2020, Eriksen scored Denmark’s opener and has been pulling the strings for the 2020 semi-finalists. They’ll need a big result against a strong Germany team if they want any chance of matching that result, however.

Surprisingly, Group D saw Austria top the group despite the presence of a strong Netherlands team and a France team that was a wonderful Emi Martinez save away from winning consecutive World Cups. France were admittedly without Real Madrid superstar Kylian Mbappé for the match against the Netherlands, which certainly contributed to the 1-1 draw, but Mbappé also failed to score in the two matches he did play outside of a penalty against Poland in the team’s final match (another 1-1 draw that ensured Austria topped the group). Mbappé’s all-around play was typically fantastic, but France will need goals from their frontman if they want to go deep in this competition. Austria, meanwhile, simply outplayed the Netherlands and deserved their top spot in the group, with Ralf Rangnick doing well to make a solid team on paper look even better than the sum of its parts. Ronald Koeman, meanwhile, did not do the same with Holland, which is relatively unsurprising for anyone who watched his teams play at Barcelona. Poland, unfortunately, were unable to do much of anything without star man Robert Lewandowski for their first match and much of their second, and were the first team to be eliminated at Euro 2024.

Down in Group E, a four-way tie at 4 points apiece ended up with some truly weird results. Belgium did not top the group, with Romania coming through (despite losing to Belgium and having equal goal difference) because they scored more goals. Slovakia finished above Ukraine on goal difference, meaning Ukraine ended Euro 2024 without a knockout appearance, despite winning more points than Slovenia did in Group C. A 3-0 loss to Romania was what did the Ukranians in, and even though Belgium beat Romania 2-0 and dominated every match, spotty finishing saw them lose to Slovakia and draw Ukraine. This group was easily one of the wildest this tournament has ever seen, with surprising results all around, and it’s only fitting that every team ended level on points. If VAR didn’t exist, Belgium would have topped the group and Romelu Lukaku would be on 3 goals by now. Unfortunately for Lukaku and the Red Devils, it does, so he’s still on zero and they finished second — setting up a blockbuster matchup against France.

Finally, in Group F, Portugal did what everyone expected them to do and topped the group comfortably. Türkiye finished second, and deservingly so based on their play (although they had some help against Czechia), while Georgia of course pulled the upset on the final match day to finish third with 4 points. Czechia slumped to a last-place finish, although they had a reasonable claim of grievance in their final match against Türkiye based on some wild referee calls. Georges Mikautazde is currently the tournament’s leading goal scorer, and Giorgi Mamardashvili has been absolutely splendid in goal. One of the big questions on everyone’s mind entering the tournament was how Portugal would handle Cristiano Ronaldo, and if he was a sub, rotational starter, or key player. In the end, he started all 3 matches and played almost every minute. Ronaldo was solid in the first match against Czechia and pretty good in the second match against Türkiye, even delivering an assist to Bruno Fernandes when he had a chance to score himself. Against Georgia, with the rest of Portugal’s starters resting thanks to having already clinched the group, Roberto Martinez made the decision to start 39-year-old Ronaldo, who had played every minute of the first two matches, in the hopes that a weak Georgia side would be goalscoring fodder. Instead, Ronaldo was dreadful in the loss to Georgia, reviving calls for Martinez to bench the legendary striker. Despite the loss, however, Portugal looked strong in the previous two when all their starters were in, a positive sign for their knockout hopes — especially considering who they face next.

Round of 16

G1: Spain (Pre-Tournament Ranking: 8) vs. Georgia (74)

As the surprise package of Euro 2024 thus far, Georgia pulled off a massive upset last time out against Portugal, although the 2016 champions rotated their starters besides Ronaldo. Beating Spain, who have been utterly dominant in their 3 matches thus far (even if the score lines haven’t reflected that), is another task entirely. Georgia look pretty good, but they simply lack the quality in midfield to have a chance at game control. What they do have, however, is game-breaking stars in Valencia’s Giorgi Mamardashvili and Napoli’s Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, along with tournament top scorer Georges Mikautazde of Metz. Mamardashvili in goal against a Spanish side that’s struggled with finishing at times could be a recipe for an upset, but it’s hard to think that Spain won’t find one. With 16-year-old supertalent Lamine Yamal on one wing and 21-year-old Nico Williams, one of the hottest prospects in world football at the moment, on the other, their chance creation has been next level. They’ll create enough to find a win here, and once the breakthrough comes, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them find a few more. 2-0 Spain

G2: Germany (16) vs. Denmark (11)

Germany played some great football in the group stage, even if they weren’t their best against Switzerland, and have to be considered the favorites here. Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz have been fantastic, and Toni Kroos, playing the final matches of his career, has been his typical self in midfield. A Denmark victory will require their attack to be more prolific than it has been across this tournament thus far, but Germany conceded just two goals in the group, one of which was an own goal in a match they thoroughly dominated. Their strength in midfield saw them really outplay Scotland and Hungary, and while Denmark is better than either, they’re not quite good enough to win this match. 2-0 Germany

G3: Portugal (6) vs. Slovenia (57)

Portugal had the easiest group in the entire tournament, and now they’re facing the lowest-ranked 3rd place team to advance. The bad news is that they’ll probably be a little bit unprepared for stiffer competition in the quarter-finals. The good news is that there’s almost no doubt that they’ll get there. They’re the stronger side here by some distance. Cristiano Ronaldo does not have the best record in international knockout matches (3 goals, 2 assists in 19 matches), but after a poor showing against Georgia, he’ll no doubt be motivated to make the difference against a Slovenia team lacking the defensive resources to handle this Portuguese attack. Ronaldo was handed a yellow card for protesting to the referee after a questionable no penalty decision in the first half, and was lucky not to get another for a blatant dive in the Georgia penalty box in the second. He’ll be starting for this match, but he’ll have to be careful now against Slovenia, because a yellow would mean he misses their quarter-final matchup — and we can be pretty confident that there will be a next matchup, given the talent mismatch here. 3-0 Portugal

G4: France (2) vs. Belgium (3)

What should be a marquee matchup on paper will likely be significantly less so in reality. Kylian Mbappé finally scored his first Euros goal from a penalty in the final match against Poland, after breaking his nose in the opening match, but has overall been one of the tournament’s better players, and you have to think the goals will come after seeing the chances he’s had. Belgium have also struggled to convert chances, with Romelu Lukaku having multiple goals taken away by VAR, which is not a good formula against one of the most lethal attacking sides of this century. Belgium actually have the talent to compete here, but they haven’t been playing like it thus far in this tournament, and that’s going to spell trouble in this one. 3-1 France

G5: Romania (46) vs. Netherlands (7)

Everything was going smoothly for the Netherlands, until it wasn’t. After being clearly outplayed by Austria in their final group stage match, players such as Virgil van Dijk spoke out against the quality of their performance. They also trailed against Poland and needed an 83rd-minute Wout Weghorst winner, then were held to a 0-0 draw against a Kylian Mbappé-less France side. Given Ronald Koeman’s recent managerial history, there’s definitely cause for concern. Romania, meanwhile, topped the group thanks to an impressive opening-match win against Ukraine, but failed to perform at the same level in either of their next two matches. This has the potential to be an ugly match that could go either way, but Bert Verbruggen being the best keeper on the pitch could end up being the difference. 0-0 (4-2p) Netherlands

G6: Austria (25) vs. Türkiye (42)

Ralf Rangnick has Austria rolling on all cylinders right now. With an impressive collection of talent that includes players such as Borussia Dortmund’s Marcel Sabitzer, Austria actually topped a group with France and the Netherlands. Türkiye played well against Georgia, but not against Czechia or Portugal. Austria’s level is somewhere in between that of Czechia and Portugal, and Türkiye were soundly outplayed by Portugal and got lucky against Czechia in a match where they had a negative xGD. Arda Güler scored a sensational goal against Georgia, but will have to be more involved in this match if manager Vincenzo Montella’s side want to get past a tough Austria team. 2-1 Austria

G7: England (5) vs. Slovakia (45)

Make no mistake about it: England is boring. Despite a fantastic collection of attacking talent, manager Gareth Southgate has not quite figured out the right combination, and so a team featuring the likes of Harry Kane, Bukayo Saka, and Phil Foden managed just 2 goals in the group stage. Slovakia, meanwhile, beat Belgium, and have performed solidly above expectations this tournament thanks to a stout defense and pace all around. A stout defense may sound like a bad omen for an England team that has struggled to score, but the talent differential here is real, and Gareth Southgate has shown a knack for winning ugly. That seems to be the likeliest outcome here. 1-0 England

G8: Switzerland (19) vs. Italy (9)

Switzerland, who have been quite good so far this tournament, face an Italy team that squeaked into the knockouts by the narrowest of margins, with a last-minute equalizer against Croatia. There’s talent on this Italy team, with players such as Riccardo Calafiori of Bologna and Inter Milan man Nicolò Barella, but they’re going to need to find another gear if they want to repeat their title run from 2020. In fact, if they don’t up their level against this Switzerland team that has never backed down from high-caliber opponents, they’re in serious trouble. Granit Xhaka, Romeo Freuler, and the rest of the Swiss team have both talent and experience. Italy has both as well, but they’re not playing anything resembling their best football right now. That could make the difference. 1-0 Switzerland

Projected Quarter-Final Matchups

G1: Spain (8) vs. Germany (16)

G2: Portugal (6) vs. France (2)

G3: Netherlands (7) vs. Austria (25)

G4: England (5) vs. Switzerland (19)